India's Russian Oil at Risk

Washington’s House of Representatives has just voted to impose a 100% tariff on any Russian crude shipped to India, a move that could upend New Delhi’s growing reliance on Moscow’s discounted oil. India has been buying more Russian barrels to offset higher prices elsewhere, but the looming duty would double the cost and could force a sharp shift in its energy mix. The threat also puts India’s access to the US market at risk, as Washington may use the tariff as leverage in broader geopolitical negotiations. With the price gap narrowing, New Delhi now faces a costly dilemma: keep buying cheap Russian fuel and risk US retaliation, or pivot to alternative sources and absorb higher prices.

India may face higher fuel prices and strained US trade ties, prompting a swift shift in its energy procurement strategy.

Washington’s tariff is part of a wider campaign to squeeze Russia’s revenue and signal to allies that defying US sanctions carries a price. For India, the move forces a strategic recalibration, balancing energy security, cost pressures and diplomatic ties with both Moscow and Washington, while global oil markets watch closely.